John The Pilot discusses airline pilot hiring numbers and training costs. He compares 2022 and 2023 hiring surges with later years.
What the video covers
Written in our own words. It only describes what the video shows and says.John The Pilot opens from a Kansas City hotel room and asks whether the pilot hiring boom is over. He gives his own background as a helicopter instructor, military helicopter pilot, federal law enforcement pilot and major airline pilot. He says the hiring environment has changed and that people spending large sums on flight training need to understand that change.
Hiring numbers from 2016 to 2026
He says 2016 to 2019 was normal, with about 4,000 ATP pilots hired while airlines backfilled attrition and retirements. He notes that the retirement age is 65 under the FAA, and that talk of raising it to 67 has not been substantiated. He says COVID caused airline travel to fall, leading to furloughs and early retirement packages, while pilots still had to retire at 65. He says 2022 hiring reached well over 12,000 ATP pilots, 2023 was well over 11,000, then 2024 and 2025 were each below 5,000. He says 2026 is around 6,000, and that 2023 to 2026 shows a 66 per cent decline.
Pilot production, competition and economic pressure
He says the 2022 and 2023 shortage was an anomaly caused by travel demand returning while airlines lacked pilots. He says about 3,600 additional pilots retired early in 2020, creating a gap. He says new ATP certificates were 4,449 in 2017 and 9,514 in 2024. He says helicopter pilots also entered the market once airlines started counting their helicopter experience. He says 2022 had about 8,000 pilots produced against about 14,000 jobs, 2023 had about 10,500 produced against about 12,000 openings, 2024 had about 9,000 produced against about 5,000 hired, and 2025 had about 8,000 produced against about 4,000 to 5,000 hired. He says airlines are now looking at degrees, experience, volunteering and interview presentation.
Retirements, costs and career choices
He says 42,000 pilots are projected to retire over 15 years, about 2,800 each year. He says current pilot production is about 4,000 to 6,000 each year, leaving an overage. He cites figures for North America needing over 122,000 pilots over 20 years, about 6,100 per year, and says that includes Canada and Mexico. He says his airline expects 800 to 900 retirements in one year. He says a 100,000 dollar loan at 12 per cent costs 1,200 dollars a month, and that he would keep a job, obtain a first class medical early, avoid rushing into expensive academies, build quality experience, network, prepare for 1,500 hours not to be enough, keep a financial backup and not choose the job only for salary.
