Qantas has agreed a 25% pay rise for about 1,700 long-haul pilots in Australia, a deal backed by 61% of pilots12. The deal comes in a year when IATA expects global airline net profit to halve, from $45 billion to $23 billion3. The Aviation Hub, a UK site, argued on 31 October that such deals are shifting airline cost structures for good4. IATA's own figures put the fuel bill up by $98 billion in 2026 and labour costs up by a little over $10 billion3.

What Qantas pilots won

The agreement covers pilots on the Boeing 787, Airbus A330 and A380. Of the 25% rise, 11.1% arrives between now and July 2027, alongside changes to rostering and conditions. Talks ran for two and a half years after the previous deal expired in 2024, with threats of industrial action but no strikes1. Pilots had turned down an earlier offer in April, when 66% voted no on a 95% turnout. The Australian Federation of Air Pilots had urged a no vote, with executive director Simon Lutton pointing to a two-year wage freeze and rises he said were unlikely to keep pace with inflation5.

Captain Andrew Marshall, president of the Australian and International Pilots Association, said the deal delivers "the largest pay rises in the history of the Long Haul Enterprise Agreement" and highlighted "significant increases for the next generation of pilots". The deal also adds three so-called golden leave days. A Qantas spokesperson said it brings "greater certainty for our international operations" during the airline's fleet renewal and the run-up to Project Sunrise, its non-stop A350-1000ULR flights1.

Fuel bill rises far faster than labour

IATA's June outlook has operating costs rising 13% to $1.117 trillion against revenue growth of 9.4% to $1.165 trillion. Net margin falls from 4.2% to 2.0%, and profit per passenger from $9.10 to $4.503.

The fuel bill climbs from $252 billion to $350 billion, with jet fuel averaging $152 a barrel, almost 70% above 2025. Labour is the largest non-fuel cost at $271 billion, up 4.0%, an increase of a little over $10 billion3. The Aviation Hub's point is that fuel prices can fall while agreed pay rates do not4.

Boston Consulting Group reported in January that crew costs rose 5% to 7% in 2025 after major contract renewals in Europe and North America, and that it expects labour costs to keep rising6. IATA also describes North American labour costs as elevated following recent wage increases3. BCG's forecast of 5.8% traffic growth for 2026 used data available as of November 20256. IATA's June outlook, which cites Middle East disruption, expects 2.1%3.

Deals elsewhere

Air Canada pilots approved a contract in 2024 covering more than 5,200 pilots, with a 26% retroactive rise and 4% a year until the end of 20267. In the Netherlands, pilots' union VNV said on 1 June that KLM and the unions had reached a deal, subject to member approval, worth 4.75% over two years for about 3,600 pilots, plus wider ticket discounts. The airline had initially refused any rise8. Qantas's own short-haul pilots accepted 9% over three years last year, following a two-year freeze1.

Regional finances differ too. IATA expects Middle East carriers to lose $4.3 billion in 2026 after a $7.2 billion profit in 2025, making the Middle East the only region in the red, while European airlines are expected to earn $9.6 billion at a 3.1% margin3.

Where pilots are in demand

Boeing forecasts demand for 674,000 new pilots worldwide up to 2045, including 153,000 in Eurasia, 123,000 in China, 122,000 in North America, 67,000 in the Middle East and 11,000 in Oceania. Boeing expects two-thirds of new aviation personnel to replace retiring staff9.

See what airline pilots earn, browse airlines and their pilot routes or practise for airline selection on PilotinQ.